The chances of your bike being stolen within the next two years is 50/50
I wanted to check whether it was worth it to get a motorcycle as an extra layer of flexibility to public transport and I saw all the posts about the thefts.
I didn't want to be scared by a potentially biased subreddit where only the people who had their bikes stolen posted so I checked the data.
There are ~13.000 motorcycles in the Dublin area as the following report shows in P14.
There were ~2.100 motorcycles stolen in the same area last year in the first 8 months according to the following article. If we annualize it, that's about 3.150 motorcycles stolen for the year.
This means that ~25% of the motorcycles are stolen every year in the region.
Assuming that each motorcycle is equally likely to be stolen, and that's a big if because more expensive ones would be more attractive but more protected by their owners, then each motorcycle owner should expect to lose 0. 25€ of every euro that he spends on his motorcycle transportation every year.
Assuming a binomial distribution, every motorcycle owner in Dublin should have a vehicle of his stolen in the span of 10 years (0.7510=95%).
Spending 0.25€ per euro of transportation on insurance against theft is a really inefficient way of transportation compared to other means.
For instance, there were 4.000 cars stolen in 2022 (link below) when the n. of cars in the country were more than 342.000, (per p.9 of the previous report) a theft rate of 1% for each car.
If one does the calculations for the theft rate in the rest of the country, would get a rate of ~2.4% which is closer to the car theft statistics, meaning that motorcycle theft is predominantly a Dublin issue.
The causes could be many and i am not sure if there is an easy solution.
What is surprising is the lack of reaction from the major stakeholders of the motorcycle market; Insurance firms, Motorcycle manufacturers, garages and dealers.
I don't buy thr argument that they make money of it because some of them double sell if there is a theft etc. The motorcycle market is supported by the legitimate buyers who buy new and used vehicles. It's not supported by the deflated prices of the stolen second hand vehicles. The higher insurance costs of motorcycles are discouraging new buyers from entering the market thus shrinking the market.
I don't believe also in reactionary measures such as increasing the responsibilities of the police.
Violence including theft can be prevented through a number of long term interventions.
A. Early age interventions; the most profitable interventions are often to children, at their formulating early years, when being underfed or abused can lead to a delay of physical and mental development. In other words, don't spend money on policemen. Spend money on making sure that all kids are well fed and have a safe home environment.
B. Free up police and prison capacity by legalizing the production, distribution and consumption of all drugs. There is no excuse as to why certain addictions such as smoking, drinking, eating sugar, playing video games and watching porn are legal and other addictions such as drugs are illegal. People should be free to choose to do whatever they want with their body
C. Reduce inequality. Inequality is one of the fundamental causes of violence and efficient redistribution of wealth can help alleviate that. Create a negative income tax so that poor people aren't penalized when they are off their welfare benefits
D. Increase the opportunity cost of crime by raising the real income of the people. A low hanging fruit is to abolish the monopoly that home owners exercise on housing in Ireland by fully liberalizing housing supply, including the opportunity to build NY and Tokyo skyscrapers in Dublin. The state should also liberalize the market for tradesmen and reconsider the 4 year certification process needed for someone who is interested to join the tradesmen field.
These are a few of the interventions. I can go on forever.
Thanks for reading my post.