92P (Invest — Southern Pacific)
Latest observation
Last updated: Friday, 7 February — 11:00 PM New Caledonia Time (NCT; 12:00 UTC)
| ATCF | 11:00 PM NCT (12:00 UTC) | |
|---|---|---|
| Current location: | 26.1°S 171.3°E | |
| Relative location: | 651 km (405 mi) ESE of Noumea, New Caledonia (France) | |
| Forward motion: | ▼ | SE (145°) at 23 km/h (12 knots) |
| Maximum winds: | ▲ | 75 km/h (40 knots) |
| Minimum pressure: | ▼ | 996 millibars (29.41 inches) |
| 2-day potential: (through 11PM Sun) | low (near 0 percent) | |
| 7-day potential: (through 11PM Thu) | ▼ | low (near 0 percent) |
Outlook discussion
Last updated: Friday, 7 February — 11:00 PM NCT (12:00 UTC)
Fiji Meteorological Service
Tropical Depression 06F's low-level circulation center (LLCC) is partially exposed and convection remains persistent to the east-northeast of the supposed LLCC. TD06F interaction with New Caledonia land mass has significantly weakened the system. Organisation is poor. The system has an elongated centre. TD06F lies in a high sheared environment with weak upper divergence. Cyclonic circulations extend up to 700 hectopascals. Sea-surface temperatures are around 27 degrees Celsius. TD06F is being steered towards southeast by the northwest deep layer mean.
Global models move TD06F southeastwards with little intensification.
The potential for this system to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 12 to 24 hours is low.
Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)
The system is currently classified as a subtropical storm, generally characterized as having both tropical and mid-latitude cyclone features. Animated multispectral satellite imagery depicts 92p with an elongated low-level circulation center (LLC) and convection streaming off to the southeast. A 071042z ASCAT MetOp-C image reveals the elongated LLC to have a swath of 35 to 40-knot winds within the southern semi-circle.
Environmental analysis reveals unfavorable conditions with high vertical wind shear (VWS) of 35 to 40 knots, strong equatorward upper-level outflow and cool sea surface temperatures (SST) of 25 to 26°C. Tropical transition of the system is analyzed to be unlikely. Deterministic and ensemble models indicate weak model development, portraying the circulation continuing to elongate within the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) on a southeast track. For hazards and warnings, reference the Fleet Weather Center San Diego High Winds and Seas product or refer to local WMO designated forecast authority.
Official information
Fiji Meteorological Service
Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)
- Homepage
- Outlook discussion
- Tropical cyclone formation alert (text) (Cancelled)
- Tropical cyclone formation alert (graphic) (Cancelled)
Radar imagery
Not available
Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.
Satellite imagery
Storm-specific imagery
- Tropical Tidbits: Visible / Shortwave Infrared
- Tropical Tidbits: Enhanced Infrared
- Tropical Tidbits: Enhanced Infrared (Dvorak)
- Tropical Tidbits: Water Vapor
- CIMSS: Multiple bands
- RAMMB: Multiple bands
- Navy Research Laboratory: Multiple bands
Regional imagery
- CIMSS: Enhanced Infrared
- CIMSS: Water vapor (Upper-level)
- CIMSS: Visible (True Color)
Analysis graphics and data
Wind analyses
- EUMETSAT: Advanced Scatterometer Data
Sea-surface Temperatures
- NOAA OSPO: Sea Surface Temperature Contour Charts
- Tropical Tidbits: Ocean Analysis
Model guidance
Storm-specific guidance
Regional single-model guidance
Regional ensemble model guidance
Weather Nerds: GEFS (120 hours)
Weather Nerds: ECENS (120 hours)