Worldwider/BoxOffice Long Range Forecast: 'Mickey 17' and 'In the Lost Lands'
Before you comment, read these two rules:
1. Please provide specific numbers for your predictions. Don't do like "It'll make less than this or that" or "double this movie or half this movie". We want a real prediction.
2. Given that a lot of parent comments do not even bother to give predictions, we are establishing a new rule. The parent comment must provide a prediction with specific numbers. The rest of the replies to the comment do not have to make a prediction, but the parent comment absolutely has to. Any parent comment without a prediction will be eliminated.
Welcome to the newest edition of r/BoxOffice Long Range Forecast.
We're making long range predictions for films, 4 weeks out from their premieres. You will predict the opening weekend, domestic total and worldwide gross of these films. These predictions will be open for 48 hours and the results will be polled to form a consensus and posted the next week.
So let's meet the two films for the week and analyze each film's pros and cons.
Mickey 17
The film is written and directed by Bong Joon-ho (Parasite, Memories of Murder, The Host, Snowpiercer, Okja), and is based on the novel by Edward Ashton. The film stars Robert Pattinson, Naomi Ackie, Steven Yeun, Toni Collette, and Mark Ruffalo. Wanting to get off of Earth, the financially destitute Mickey Barnes signs up to be an "expendable", a disposable clone worker, on the human colony Niflheim. As an expendable, Mickey undertakes several dangerous assignments he is not expected to survive, with a new body being regenerated each time he dies. After one of his clones, "Mickey 17", is incorrectly assumed dead, both the previous and current version, known as Mickey 18, have to grapple with the nature of being expendables and the brutal government of the colony.
In the Lost Lands
The film is directed by Paul W. S. Anderson (Resident Evil), with a screenplay by Constantin Werner from a story they both co-wrote, which is based on the short story by George R. R. Martin (A Song of Ice and Fire). The film stars Milla Jovovich and Dave Bautista as a witch and a hunter, respectively, who journey into a dangerous landscape to find an artifact for a queen.
Now that you've met this week's new releases. Let's look at some pros and cons.
PROS
The film is sold practically on its director. Bong Joon-ho is coming off the colossal success of Parasite, which not only made $262 million worldwide, but also won big at the Oscars, becoming the first foreign language film to win Best Picture. Needless to say, people want to see what he will do next, especially now that he has a big studio giving him final cut privilege. There are known names in the cast, and sci-fi is still one of the most popular genres.
Despite the poor critical reception to his films, Paul W.S. Anderson has had box office hits for most of his career. Action fans not interested in Captain America might want to check this out, given it's one whole month after the previous action title Love Hurts.
CONS
The trailers for Mickey 17 are weird. Like, very weird. It's sci-fi, but it's also a dark comedy, which is a combo that is inconsistent at the box office. While the trailers also establish the conflict of Mickey dying multiple times and facing his clone, there's still a lack of explanation over what the story is really about. While it's carrying some known names, none are certified box office draws; Robert Pattinson may be Batman, but that does not indicate he will get people to watch other movies based on his name alone. WB has also moved the film around multiple times, which is quite weird. But perhaps the biggest con is its budget; budgets may vary, but the film was reported to cost $80 million up to $150 million (with some actually suggesting $118 million). Even then, that's still setting a high bar for success.
While Paul W.S. Anderson is a mostly successful filmmaker, eventually the audience will get tired if they come to expect more of the same from him. Even for his standards, the trailer for this film looks very bad. And compared to his other films, which were distributed by big studios like Sony, this film is distributed by Vertical Entertainment, whose highest grossing film is Gotti with just $4.2 million domestically.
And here's the past results.
Movie | Release Date | Distributor | Domestic Debut | Domestic Total | Worldwide Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Love Hurts | February 7 | Universal | $14,884,615 | $42,115,384 | $75,738,461 |
Heart Eyes | February 7 | Sony | $10,238,461 | $28,038,461 | $41,565,384 |
Bridget Jones: Mad About the Boy | February 13 | Universal | $0 | $0 | $151,563,636 |
Captain America: Brave New World | February 14 | Disney | $83,824,000 | $212,630,769 | $477,315,625 |
The Monkey | February 21 | Neon | $14,511,111 | $40,066,666 | $66,472,222 |
The Unbreakable Boy | February 21 | Lionsgate | $4,735,000 | $11,870,000 | $15,225,000 |
The Day the Earth Blew Up: A Looney Tunes Movie | February 28 | Ketchup | $4,505,000 | $12,370,000 | $14,566,666 |
Last Breath | February 28 | Focus Features | $6,557,142 | $18,828,571 | $33,042,857 |
Next week, we'll predict Black Bag and Novocaine.
So what are your predictions for these films?