I Think I Might Be On To Something !
I was curious what the pool would look like if they showed the breakdown like this. So I tried creating it myself. The purpose of this "Pool Simulation" is to give a better picture to CEC candidates who are CRS 515-526 and are wondering if they'll get the ITA before LMIA points vanish.
Now, there are A LOT of assumptions here, but I believe I haven't assumed anything which is complete trash.
Rules & Assumptions: 1. All Assumptions here are very conservative. 2. Everything here concerns CEC candidates only, who are CRS500 and above. 3. I have taken into account the variable nature of the pool to the best of my ability. 4. This is the pool on Feb 21, 2025(First picture). 5. Total number of candidates in this pool(CRS 501-600) is 28,000. 6. Pool had 23,240 candidates between CRS 501-600 on January 8. Now, on Jan 23 this section of the pool grew to 24,001, an increase of ~ 1,000 candidates. So my pool should have a strength of 26,000 candidates by Feb 21, but hey, it's my pool I'll keep it to 28,000. 😂 7. Again, I'm aware of the dynamic nature of the pool but I am no AI. I'm just a guy writing down stuff on a notebook and a piece of paper. 8. Second picture is a rough breakdown of how landed on those numbers in each row. 9. I am formulating next two CEC draws here. 10. Last CEC draw got us 4,000 ITAs but for both my draws, I am inviting 3,500 candidates each. 11. After the end of February, LMIA points will no longer stand, so the pool breakdown will drastically change. 12. Also, I've assumed every candidate here is a CEC candidate.
Judging from past records, draws come out every 2 weeks so, my next CEC draws are :
Feb 6, 2025. CRS cutoff 522 with 3,500 ITAs.
- 743 out of 2,579 candidates between CRS520-525 are not getting invited everyone else above them is.
Feb 21, 2025. CRS cutoff 517 with 3,500 ITAs.
- 1,876 out of 4,633 candidates in the CRS range 515-520 are not getting invitations everyone else above them is.