BeerSheets 2016-08-26 (Google Backup Edition)

BEERSHEETS: 2016-08-26 UPDATE

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CUSTOM BEERSHEETS REQUEST FORM

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What is this?

These are cheat sheets intended to help players in both snake draft and auction drafts. It uses a combination of value based drafting combined with a few of my own calculations to establish player value, positional scarcity, auction value, and tiers.

What are the calculations based on?

I use as many projections as I can find to establish a range of projected values for each player. I use a Value Based Drafting approach to calculate the player value for each projection, and then average those values to get a final number. The standard deviation of those value projections are used to determine tiers. A key component of value based drafting is establishing the baseline player, which I set based on this article. Auction values are calculated using this method.

What's new this year?

The core remains the same, but I've replaced the ADP column with FantasyPros rankings. This is helpful for drafters who need to pick between players who share the same tier. The ranking still provides guidance on when a player is expected to be drafted.

I've also changed the way that custom requests will be handled. Instead of having every custom form be linked directly to a name, I'll instead separate each sheet by the various roster and scoring requirements. This means that you'll have to click through more folders in order to get to your specific sheet, but it also means that I can cut down on repeats and people might be able to find a sheet that matches their needs if they have a draft coming up.

There's also a column to the left of each position list that lets you mark up the sheet. Put an "x" in that column to black out the player, and put a number (1+) in there to mark the player yellow.

What do the columns mean?

Player Name: The name of the player.

TM/BW: The player's team and bye week.

RNK: The player's rank based on FantasyPros, formatted in a "round.pick" format so that you can also use it to judge ADP (auction sheets do not have this formatting). In general ADP and ranking is closely correlated, and players with no formatting are taken in the same round as their ranking. Values that are struck through mean the ADP is more than a round before the rank. Values that are underlined mean the ADP is more than a round after the rank; two underlines means two or more. These ADP predictions do not apply to 2QB leagues!

#/#/P: This is how the player did last year for a given position each week. The first two numbers represent a weekly rank in a position (0.5 means the top 50% of a position, typically used for 1 position slots such as QB and TE). P stands for played; the number of weeks the player actually played assuming a 16 week season. For example a player's column reads 6/10/13. That means that in 2015 using that scoring and roster setting he was a RB1 a total of 6 times, equal to or better than a RB2 a total of 10 times (including the RB1 weeks), and played a total of 13 games.

VAL: Player value. The average value of multiple projections relative to a baseline player (numbers shown in the title bar).

PS: Positional Scarcity. The percentage of player value remaining in that position once that player (and all players above him) are drafted. This is the means by which you can determine the opportunity cost of selecting one position over another.

$: Auction sheets only. This is a player's auction value based on this method.

$DV: Auction sheets only. This is the standard deviation of a player's auction value, which is useful for determining the range of what a player "should" cost based on the above method.

What are tiers?

Tiers are groups of players whose projections overlap as a result of the mean and standard deviation of their particular data set. Projections are notoriously unreliable (the top experts are lucky to be right 60% of the time), so players who are stacked within the same tier should be considered roughly comparable in value.

Will you share the original data file?

Nope.

Can you do a sheet for my 13 player 2QB/1RB/3WR/2FLX/TE/DST/2PK league with 0.314 PPR and 9 PPTD?

I have a form that you can fill out and the week before your draft I'll generate a custom form for you.

This is awesome! These sheets help me win my league last year, and you deserve a tip! How can I throw money at you?

I run a Fantasy Football charity league, and over the last three years the league has raised $7978. A significant portion of these donations come through generous people like you making donations as a way of saying thanks for BeerSheets. If you like this then please consider donating. Every dollar goes to a good cause, and I pay all fees out of my own pocket.

Will you do IDP?

Eventually. It requires a lot of work, but it's on my to-do list. The problem with IDP is that there aren't a lot of projections and the tiers become massive.

Will you do Dynasty?

This method doesn't work for dynasty, as the projections are only for one year.

What's the best way to use this? Which categories should I pay attention to the most?

Example 1: Value Based Drafting

Example 2: 0RB

The real meat of the sheet is value and positional scarcity. What I like to do is start off with value and see which players are available within each position that have similar value. I look at tier to get a sense of how many players are "clumped" together and see if I can't get value later on. It should be noted that the tiers are not absolute; comparing the last player of one tier to the first player of the tier below him is perfectly reasonable.

Positional scarcity shows how much value is remaining in each position after a player is taken. In general you want the player with the lower PS, because there's less value remaining once that player is gone. This will also give you a sense of just how much value an individual player takes from the "pool" of points for each skill.

Rankings are a great way to determine when a player should be drafted, when that player is actually being drafted, and also differentiating between players in a tier. They're a good way to pick between players who share a tier once I've decided which skill position I want to draft. It should be noted that rankings are limited to contemporary scoring and rosters; the more nonstandard your league the less useful the rankings may be.

The historical numbers are helpful for figuring out how a player did last year, and whether or not you're looking at a player with a high floor or a low ceiling. Obviously this is a purely historical perspective, so drafters should be wary of players who might have changed teams or who have either gained or lost competition.

OH GOD WHERE IS MY SHEET WHY HAVE YOU FORSAKEN ME?

My system automatically culls out anything old, duplicate requests, or requests too far in the future. If your draft is more than 8 days away from the date of the update then it won't be in this folder. If you are absolutely positive that your draft is this week, and you don't see your sheet, then submit another request and make sure your scoring, roster, and draft date are correct. I try to do nightly runs to catch anything missing.

If this post is less than six hours old then please give it some time. I'm running through several thousand requests.

Who else should I check out?