NFL Elo Power Rankings After Week 15 (OC)
ptdotme's NFL Elo Power Rankings After Week 15
I've written code to calculate NFL team Elo ratings1 on a week to week basis. The goal is to use simple Elo ratings to create power rankings without human bias, where the ratings reflect expected team performance in any hypothetical head-to-head matchup today (not just which team is expected to win the Super Bowl.) The ratings are based on each team's rating and performance from the previous week, with a "parity reset" applied every offseason. The model has been tested for accuracy against game outcomes since week 1 of the 20122 season. The ratings are derived only from each game's score, venue, and date, yet are about as accurate as the best humans at picking game winners3. There are a number of variables/weights in my secret sauce but otherwise they're fairly conservative, basic, Elo ratings.
Are these rankings biased toward the Bills? No, but there is a kind of publication bias at work here because honestly if the Bills had been terrible the last few years I wouldn't have been motivated to work on and publish these ratings, and you wouldn't be reading this.
Feedback is appreciated! Also, more stats and info than can be squeezed into a reddit post is all available on my 2024 NFL Elo Power Rankings page.
| Rank | Team | Elo Rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Detroit Lions | 1591 (-8) | 12-2 |
| 2 | Buffalo Bills | 1589 (+7) | 11-3 |
| 3 | Baltimore Ravens | 1580 (+10) | 9-5 |
| 4 (+2) | Green Bay Packers | 1568 (+13) | 10-4 |
| 5 (-1) | Philadelphia Eagles | 1567 (+11) | 12-2 |
| 6 (-1) | Kansas City Chiefs | 1565 (+9) | 13-1 |
| 7 (+3) | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 1554 (+18) | 8-6 |
| 8 | Minnesota Vikings | 1553 (+10) | 12-2 |
| 9 | Denver Broncos | 1552 (+10) | 9-5 |
| 10 (-3) | Pittsburgh Steelers | 1536 (-11) | 10-4 |
| 11 (+4) | Cincinnati Bengals | 1518 (+7) | 6-8 |
| 12 (+2) | Houston Texans | 1516 (+4) | 9-5 |
| 13 (-1) | San Francisco 49ers | 1513 (-7) | 6-8 |
| 14 (-3) | Los Angeles Chargers | 1510 (-17) | 8-6 |
| 15 (+1) | Washington Commanders | 1508 (+3) | 9-5 |
| 16 (+1) | Los Angeles Rams | 1506 (+7) | 8-6 |
| 17 (-4) | Seattle Seahawks | 1503 (-13) | 8-6 |
| 18 (+1) | Arizona Cardinals | 1491 (+9) | 7-7 |
| 19 (-1) | Miami Dolphins | 1487 (-3) | 6-8 |
| 20 (+2) | Dallas Cowboys | 1486 (+12) | 6-8 |
| 21 (-1) | New Orleans Saints | 1474 (-3) | 5-9 |
| 22 (-1) | Indianapolis Colts | 1466 (-10) | 6-8 |
| 23 (+3) | New York Jets | 1465 (+8) | 4-10 |
| 24 (+1) | Atlanta Falcons | 1464 (+4) | 7-7 |
| 25 (-2) | Jacksonville Jaguars | 1458 (-8) | 3-11 |
| 26 (-2) | Chicago Bears | 1454 (-10) | 4-10 |
| 27 | Cleveland Browns | 1433 (-8) | 3-11 |
| 28 (+3) | Las Vegas Raiders | 1424 (-5) | 2-12 |
| 29 | Tennessee Titans | 1422 (-7) | 3-11 |
| 30 (-2) | New York Giants | 1421 (-10) | 2-12 |
| 31 (-1) | New England Patriots | 1420 (-9) | 3-11 |
| 32 | Carolina Panthers | 1405 (-12) | 3-11 |
1See Wikipedia. Elo ratings are numeric and assigned to each contestant. The ratings are used to estimate performance. After each game, the difference between a contestant's estimated and actual performance is used to update their rating. For the NFL, this can all be summarized as "Who did you beat/lose to and by how much? And who have they beaten/lost to and by how much? And who have they beaten/lost to ...
2Moving backward through the years, each preceding season has a much smaller impact on the current ratings. Team ratings from 2010 have zero impact on today's ratings. Ratings from only a couple years ago, say 2022, have almost no effect on today's ratings. Seasons going back to 2010 are only used by the model to ensure its accuracy over thousands of NFL games.
3This Elo model picked more game winners than Vegas did in 8 of the past 12 seasons (see the straight-up favorites column at sportsoddshistory.com).