2024 A decision - Asia and the Pacific

MIDDLE EAST

On October 7, 2023, the already unstable situation in the Middle East escalates into a new dimension. The Iranian-backed terrorist organization Hamas launches a large-scale attack on Israel from the Gaza Strip. The ensuing war is brutal, bloody and fought in fierce house-to-house fighting for every meter. Iran supports Hamas sporadically through drone and rocket attacks, while Israel offers fierce resistance. Despite international criticism, especially from pro-Palestinian groups, the Trump administration stands firmly by Israel's side and supplies extensive weapons and air defense systems to support the country. This support enables Israel to fully occupy the Gaza Strip on April 3, 2024 and officially hand it over to the Palestinian Authority. In reality, however, the area remains under strict Israeli military occupation. But despite the military success, the victory remains empty: the Hamas leadership is either dead, in hiding or has fled to Iran. Many hostages cannot be freed - some die, others remain missing to this day. In an attempt to hamper Iran's nuclear program and force political concessions, Israel launches a series of air strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities and suspected Hamas hideouts on June 7, 2024. But what Israel does not know is that Iran is prepared. Modernized air defense systems intercept numerous missiles, while Iranian fighter jets shoot down Israeli jets - a diplomatic and military embarrassment for Israel. Nevertheless, the operation is considered largely successful, and the expected Iranian retaliation remains limited. Drone attacks and rocket fire hit Israel, but most attacks are repelled. Since then, there has been a permanent air war: Israel bombs Iranian positions and pro-Iranian militias throughout the region, while Iran responds with rocket and drone attacks on Israeli territory An escalation seems inevitable.

PACIFIC, SOUTH ASIA and EAST ASIA

Since the fall of Ukraine and the creation of the American International Treaty (AIT), the Asia-Pacific region has been more unstable than ever. China has invested heavily in its navy and can now compete with the US and its allies - in some areas it even surpasses them. The response of the US and its partners has been decisive: Japan and South Korea have become strongholds of deterrence, with new military bases, missile defense systems and advanced weapons systems. Taiwan has been turned into a fortress and American troops are now permanently stationed there. Weekly military exercises in the Taiwan Strait and across the Pacific are increasing tensions. Incidents have already occurred, such as when a Chinese destroyer almost rammed a US ship. War seems only a matter of time. Alongside the military escalation, the economic confrontation is also intensifying. The US and its allies have cut China off from Western high technology, particularly in the field of microchips and AI technology. Beijing responded with export bans on rare earths, a key resource for Western industry, as well as trade restrictions on strategic goods. As a result, the US, the AIT and the European Security Alliance (ESA) are pushing for economic decoupling from China. Beijing, in turn, is strengthening its economic and military alliances with Russia, Iran and North Korea while accelerating its expansion in Southeast Asia and the Pacific. The Chinese economy is beginning to suffer from the sanctions, but the leadership in Beijing remains determined. The global economy is suffering from the disintegration of global trade chains. As the superpowers plan their next moves, the world is on the brink of a new, uncontrollable crisis.